Issue 1

<div class="page old_photo"> <article> <header style="background-image:url(/uploads/529617916f856.jpg);"> <div class="box"> <div class="intro"> <h1>Grudge Match</h1> James R. Baird Rimmer & Patrick Noland </div> </div> </header> <div class="main"> <div class="container"> Should defeated MP's run again? In 2008 the Hon. Andrew Telegdi lost the riding of Kitchener-Waterloo, which he had represented for 15 years, by seventeen votes. 17. He lost again in 2011 by two thousand four hundred and fourteen votes. 2414. Mr Telegdi was one of twenty-two Members of Parliament who ran again after their initial defeat in a series of very similar elections between 2004-2011. Fought on the same election map between the same parties over similar issues these four elections offer us a rare opportunity in Canada to compare properly tactics and choices. Was running again the right decision for Mr Telegdi and this twenty other peers? Simply put no. The Numbers. You would think that defeated MP’s would have an edge. They would be more polished, more experienced politicians, with still a strong party infrastructure and local contacts. Their knowledge of what it takes to be an MP could be used to provide cutting criticism of the novice who defeated them. Yet only three of the twenty-two MP’s managed to win their seats back. John Duncan returned to represent Vancouver Island North in 2008 after losing in 2006. Duncan had MP since 1997 and lost the 2006 race by only 630 votes. Peggy Nash was re-elected in Parkdale-High Park in 2011 after losing in 2008. It was her fourth time on the ballot, having lost her first run in 2004. More complicated is Françoise Boivin. She was a Liberal MP for Gatineau who lost to the Bloc Quebecois in 2006. She then lost by only a couple thousands votes as an NDP candidate in 2008. In 2011 she regained her seat in a crushing victory as part of the Orange Wave. Lets do some math. The probability of a generic candidate in the both the 2008 and 2011 elections of winning a seat in the House of Commons was 19%. The probably of a defeated MP regaining their seat was .06% in 2008 and a whopping 0.1% in 2011. The odds in fact were better for people who had lost consistently. Three candidates, François Pilon, Guy Caron and Alain Giguère won on their fourth election in 2011 (Mr Giguère had in fact been a candidate on and off since 1984). Another five won on their third race. The odds for these repeat offenders were a lofty 0.5%. The eight are mostly part of the Orange Wave. Only two, Parm Gill and Roxanne James won their seats outside of Quebec. They were Ontario Conservatives. In 2008 five MPs won on their third campaign making their odds of success 0.3%. Four were NDP candidates in North Ontario. The twenty one. Who were the twenty-one MP’s who failed to make a comeback? Ontario Suburban Liberals. 15 of them were Liberals. 63% were running in Ontario ridings (compared to Ontario’s 34% of the house) and 11 were in the suburbs. Most were also MP’s with relatively low regional, provincial or national profiles. They had been in office on average 6 years, (median was 4 years) with the shortest being two years and the longest 15. Only two had a prominent parliamentary role: Karen Redman was Chief Government Whip during the Martin era and was Opposition Chief Whip from 2006 to 2008. Vivian Barbot was the Bloc’s house leader from 2006 to 2008 when she lost her seat to Justin Trudeau. Outside of those two, the highest rank any of these MPs held was parliamentary secretary. They had low media profiles outside of their riding, with their comments and names rarely appearing outside local media. Further, on average, they were unable to increase vote totals. Even when they won, these candidates saw a decline in support. From 2006 to 2008, the only elections in which all the candidates competed, they saw a 5% drop in support. Fighting the Wave MP’s with small personal brands in suburban swing ridings are some of the most vulnerable. They lack the personal connection, the personal infrastructure to fight the current of public opinion as it shifts away from their party. Suburban ridings have the least stable voting coalitions as not only voters more ideologically flexible but communities are more transient, with groups and demographics moving in and out quickly. Further, even for MP’s with decades of service there is not that much they can do to survive a poorly run national campaign with an unliked leader. A poorly run national campaign keeps loyalists at home and allows swing voters to leave the camp. It is noteworthy that two of the three who re-took their seats did so in 2011 as NDP candidates. Both Nash and Boivin achieved far above their historical vote averages. Swings on these scales are not just the result of a hard working local campaign; they require a broader reorganization of voters. Most important is the optics of re-running. Voters see an attempt to regain a seat as a sign that the MP and the party are not listening. Implicitly, by running again, a former MP sends the message “the voters made a mistake. I am still a quality candidate” There is no recognition in an MP running again that the MP or the party could have made mistakes - that they need to change or alter themselves in some way to better meet voter’s needs. An MP running again under the same banner sends the message that the party rejects the voters’ rejection. Voters take note of this deafness, tune out the campaign and speak loudly with their votes. </div> </div> </article> </div>

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Issue 1